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| Photo courtesy Raj Suri |
NEENA BHANDARI is a freelance foreign correspondent, writing for national and international media. She is FCA's Vice-President and Online Editor.
As Sydney braced up for its coldest November day in 101 years, eager correspondents warmed up to an eloquent address by Indian Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram at a briefing hosted by the Foreign Correspondents' Association (Australia & South Pacific).
While the breathtaking views from the New South Wales Department of State and Regional Development's 47th floor office were clouded, the minister presented a clear and vivid picture of India's rise as an economic giant.
On Uranium & Clean Energy: "Developing countries should be given access to clean energy". The Minister pressed India's case on uranium during a `courtesy call' on Prime Minister John Howard on November 15. He said, "Mr Howard heard me carefully and I believe he understood our case".
Mr Chidambaram said uranium from suppliers like Australia would be needed if India is to limit its greenhouse gas emissions by increasing its reliance on nuclear power. India generates 3 per cent of its energy needs from nuclear power plants but wants to lift the proportion to 10 per cent.
He said, "The world should accept our word and share with us uranium and clean coal technologies. The growth of our nation is dependent on energy consumption. We are open to cleaner energy resources, but there should be a transfer of technology, like access to uranium".
Australia has a longstanding policy not to sell uranium to countries outside the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. India has not signed the treaty. With about 40% of the world's known uranium deposits, Australia sells and allows China to own a stake in its uranium mines.
On a lighter note, the minister said, "If Australia supports India in the nuclear suppliers group and sale of uranium, we'll let them win the ICC trophy!"
On Outsourcing: Dispelling misconceptions that Australian jobs were going to India, the minister said, "In a globalised world, it is misconstrued that Australia is outsourcing jobs. The total value of outsourcing from Australia to India is worth about $US250 million [$327 million] but the value of Indian students coming into Australia to study, along with several other services which are outsourced by India to Australia, is about $US1 billion. In a world, where efficiency is driving the global economies, this is bound to happen. The process of globalisation should be viewed as an opportunity for both countries not as a threat".
He also appealed to the Australian public not to view India's low-cost services sector as a threat. Several Australian firms including banks and airlines have recently shifted jobs to India, especially in information technology.
On Australian Financial Sector: Mr Chidambaram said, "Australia should open up its protective banking system and financial services sector".
He envisages potential growth in Indo-Australian two-way trade which is set to cross the symbolic total of $10 billion this year. Mining, energy, food and beverages and steel are growing sectors for India-Australia trade.
On Manufacturing: "India is leading in services, but we also wants to become a manufacturing hub", said the minister. "Our services and manufacturing growth rate equal in double digits. Our manufacturing is driven by domestic demand and exports".
However, some manufacturers might feel uneasy about Mr Chidambaram's comments about the rapid development of super-cheap Indian cars. He said the Indian carmaker Tata Motors was on track to release a small vehicle for about $US2500, although the price might be higher if it eventually goes on sale in Australia.
According to a Goldman Sachs report, first China and then a decade later India will overtake the US as the world's largest car market.
On WTO, IMF & G-20: "India's engagement with the rest of the world is broadening, in the last two years we have played an active role in the World Trade Organisation and we continue to articulate views of developing countries at the IMF". He said India and China were being listened to "more and more" in global forums such as the G20. "We are an emerging economic power so we are invited to G-20. India's economy must integrate with world economy".
Regarding the issue of reform of the IMF and World Bank, Mr. Chidambaram said, "We (India) are under- represented in the IMF. The quotas and voting rights need to represent the current situation. Some countries that are over-represented need to yield their share in favour of countries which are clearly under represented. While everyone agrees that we are under-represented, none agree that they are over-represented".
He also added that India is ideally suited to represent the IMF governing bodies. "India will not borrow from the IMF in the future - I hope. However, other countries need to borrow from the IMF, and so it must be represented by those who understand the needs of developing countries."
Voting shares affect the 184 member nations' say in the decisions of the IMF, and how much they can borrow from it. The weight of each country's vote is currently apportioned by the size of their economy, openness to trade and other criteria.
India and other nations have said they want a new formula for voting rights that would use national income calculated in terms of purchasing power - not dollars, which would be subject to exchange rate fluctuations - and would take into account the need of large developing economies to protect their farmers and nascent industries from foreign competition.
On AIBC: Commending the Australia India Business Council, the minister said, "AIBC corporate parties play a very vital role in anchoring a multi-dimensional partnership between the two countries. We look forward to forging close ties with Australia, which is a mutually beneficial partner in trade and international fora".
Addressing a select gathering of business and government executives, diplomats, academicians, media and leading expatriate Indian community members at a luncheon hosted by the AIBC at Hotel Inter Continental in Sydney on November 16, the minister said, "Deeper and closer engagement of India and Australia augurs well for the Asia Pacific region".
On GDP Growth: The Indian economy, on average, has grown at a rate of more than 8 per cent during the last three financial years, making it one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The minister said, "India's GDP growth must be sustained for the next 10 years and that is possible. If we can get a literate and skilled workforce over the next 15 years surely we can sustain a higher growth. The Indian story will continue to unfold in the next 10-15 years".
"The government attaches the highest priority to the development and expansion of physical infrastructure like roads, highways, ports, power, railways, water supply, sewage treatment and sanitation. An investment of about US$ 320 billion would be required in the infrastructure sector during the Eleventh Plan period (2007-2012)".
The BRICS report identifies India as the only economy that will be capable of maintaining growth rates above 5 per cent till the year 2050. India's share of global GDP, in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, at 5.9 per cent in 2005 is the fourth highest in the world. In terms of share in world exports, India accounts for 0.9 per cent, with the value of exports in US dollar terms placed at US $100 billion. However, the robust export growth in excess of 20 per cent, during the recent years, points to the fact that the there is still scope for scaling greater heights in the medium term. The poverty level, which was 36 per cent in 1993-94, had come down to about 22 per cent in 2004-05.
A Goldman Sachs report estimates that the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) economies' share of world growth could rise from 20% in 2003 to more than 40% in 2025. Also, their total weight in the world economy would rise from approximately 10% in 2004 to more than 20% in 2025. Furthermore, between 2005 and 2015 over 800 million people in these countries will have crossed the annual income threshold of $3,000. In 2025, it is calculated that approximately 200 million people in these economies will have annual incomes above $15,000.
On foreign Investment: The minister said, "We are open to investment. We can absorb large foreign investment". When quizzed on the role of Left Parties in the United Progressive Alliance government, the minister said, "They are wooing investment in Kerala and West Bengal. They are not opposed to it".
India's GDP in 2005-06 was about US$ 750 billion. The savings rate was 29.1 per cent in 2004-05 and presumably higher the next year. The investment rate was 30.1 per cent in 2004-05 and presumably higher the following year. He said, "Given the current state of the economy, to grow the GDP at 8 per cent or more requires very large resources for investment. It also requires further gains in productivity which is possible only if we can make more investments in education and healthcare. The obvious answer is to supplement domestic resources with more foreign capital. The current account deficit was only 0.4 per cent in 2004-05 and 1.3 per cent in 2005-06, and hence there is ample room to accommodate a larger flow of foreign investment without affecting fiscal stability."
On Migration: The minister was the lead speaker on demographic change at the G-20 meeting in Melbourne. He said, "We have to manage migration and not end migration. Human resources are abundant in many countries. Well-managed migration could actually provide a positive contribution to employment and global economic growth, if we manage to successfully promote the integration of the migrants in host-societies."
Countries across the world "would do well to shift the emphasis from immigration control to better immigration management," he told the G-20 before the Ministers concluded the two-day (November 18-19) meeting in Melbourne.
On Inflation: Average long-term inflation in the last decade was a moderate 4.9 per cent. Overall inflation reached a peak of 5.5 per cent for week ending June 17, 2006. For the week ending October 21, 2006, it stood at 5.41 per cent. Prices of 30 essential commodities like wheat, flour, pulses, sugar, potatoes, milk, etc, were much higher during this period. However, inflation remained commodity-specific in nature and was largely due to a reduced domestic availability and high international prices.
The Minister said, "There are some concerns on the prices front. We should be able to keep inflation well below 5% and aim to bring it down to below 4%".
Low wheat stocks in India and continued increases in food grain demand have led to the Indian Government deciding to import wheat. The minister said, "We were forced to purchase wheat from Australia". In early May 2006, the Indian Government announced a tender to purchase 3 million tonnes of wheat. This will be the largest quantity of wheat imported by India for at least 15 years.
On China: The minister said, "India and China are growing at a blistering pace. There is enough room for both India and China to grow". He said, "It was good for the world as while in many areas we are competing, we also complement each other. India is also among the leaders in manufacturing. In manufacturing, we have identified some industries which, with appropriate incentives, can throw up huge job opportunities. These include textiles, food processing, petroleum, chemicals and petro-chemicals, leather, and automobiles. In services, tourism and software can offer a large number of jobs".
Indian Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram is globally recognised as one of the key architects in India's reform process and is part of the 'dream team' set to lead the Indian economy into its next growth phase. He is well known for his pro-market reforms, his conviction in the resilience of the Indian economy and his intimate knowledge of the challenges it faces. India's current economic standing is to a large extent the result of the fiscal reforms process initiated by him in late eighties. He has a wide range of interests. He has appeared in a number of arbitration proceedings in India and abroad. He is a trustee of the Rajiv Gandhi Foundation. He is interested in Modern Literature and is a trustee of the 'Illakkiya Chintanai' or Literary Association in Chennai. He is fond of sports, especially Tennis, Badminton and Chess. An orator par excellence, he is always earnest in his replies to the media, articulating the technicalities in his clear and straight forward manner.
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| Photo courtesy Raj Suri |
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